A major issues that has shaped the current school referendum relates to population growth within the Hudson School District. Prior to the recession that started in 2008, St. Croix County was the fastest growing county in WI, with Hudson experiencing a large share of that growth. Whether or not St. Croix County will witness the same levels of growth it experienced in the '90s and early 2000s remains to be seen.
It is important to stress that the current 3-Question Plan for addressing our secondary school space needs relates partially to a need to address growth - but it also significantly relates to the need for updating and modernizing existing decades old facilities. With this in mind however, the issue of future growth still needs to be addressed.
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES
Demographers, like weathermen, catch a lot of flak for the work they do because they deal primarily with forecasting. HSD relies on the work of demographers in order to plan for the future use of teaching facilities. Within the past ten years, HSD has worked with two separate demographers to aid in decision making.
Reinhardt Study
HSD relied on analyses from Dr. Reinhardt (retired Minnesota State Demographer) from approximately 2005 to 2010 for school enrollment projections. Dr. Reinhardt predicted significant growth could be expected to continue within the school district. The recent recession, however, dampened those results, with the prediction that high school enrollment would reach 2,000 by 2015 never being realized. In Dr. Reinhart's defense, no one could have predicted the toll the recession would have on our community.
Here is the most recent Reinhardt Study (2010) in its entirety.
Gillaspy Study
In conjunction with the 2015 community engagement process, HSD contracted with Dr. Gillaspy, retired Minnesota State Demographer (who succeeded Reinhardt), to gain a better understanding of where HSD enrollment could be headed in a post-recession world. Dr. Gillaspy took a much more somber post-recession view of future growth. Some of the trends identified suggest:
-- The new St. Croix Crossing Bridge will have limited impact on population growth within HSD
-- “Millennials” of child bearing age will be less attracted to outer suburban settings like Hudson to raise their families
-- Empty-nesters and retirees will be age groups most likely attracted to the Hudson area
In terms of impact on HSD, Dr. Gillaspy concluded:
-- While the county and district will continue to grow, growth rates will be lower than in the 90s and early 2000s.
-- Over the next 5 years, enrollment will increase for high school, decrease for primary school, increase then decrease for middle school.
-- Over the next 25 years, school age population will increase between zero and 700.
-- Primary school age population will decline to 2025 and increase after to approximately 2010 level.
-- Middle school age population will increase to 2020 and then drift downward.
-- High school age population will increase to about 2025 and then drift downward to approximately 2010 level.
Here is Dr. Gillaspy’s August 2015 presentation to the School Board.
HOSPITAL BIRTHS
In addition to demographic studies, another indicator used to predict future growth is number of births at Hudson Hospital. The problems with relying on birthrate statistics are 1) it is impossible to predict how many of those babies will actually attend Hudson schools 2) there is no guarantee that those born to parents who reside within HSD boundaries will choose to remain in Hudson once their children are school-aged. Conversely, relying solely on birth rates does not take into account families who move into HSD after their children are born. The transient nature of the community in this respect is therefore extremely difficult to quantify. For these reasons, we caution against using this statistic as a major indicator of future district growth.
TO CONCLUDE...
It should again be emphasized that the April 5th 3-Question Plan referendum is focused on the modernization of existing secondary schools, and the alleviation of current overcrowding, rather than a large-scale new campus designed for a population expected to grow at pre-recession rates. The architectural plans that have been developed prudently take into account the possibility of adding-on to the high school should the need arise in future.
Understanding Population Studies